Retail E-Commerce Growth Drops Sharply
NOVEMBER 24, 2008

Online sales are still growing, but far more slowly.

2008 had already been shaping up to be the weakest holiday season yet for retail e-commerce. Based on just-released Q3 e-commerce data from the US Department of Commerce (DOC), eMarketer is predicting even more anemic growth—both for the holiday and the year.

The DOC estimated that e-commerce sales grew only 4.6% in Q3 2008, compared with Q3 2007.

In May 2008, eMarketer projected that retail e-commerce sales growth would drop to 14.3% this year compared with 2007. Benchmarked against the new DOC data, eMarketer predicts 2008 will now be the first year of single-digit growth of the decade.

Online sales (excluding travel) will total nearly $137 billion in 2008, up 7.2% year-over-year, compared with last year’s 19.8% growth rate.

eMarketer expects that consumers will spend only $30.3 billion online in November and December this year. Its May number was a mere 10.1% growth over last year’s holiday spending. But the new estimate is for just 4% growth.

The weak economy is placing downward pressure on e-commerce sales this season. Online shopping growth had already been slowing naturally as part of the channel’s maturation; the economy is slowing growth even more.

“Hopefully, we’re nearing the bottom of this,” says Jeffrey Grau, eMarketer’s e-commerce analyst. “People are going to be more frugal this holiday season."